The Toronto Globe and Mail ^ | April 13, 2011 | Andrew Steele
Posted on Thursday, April 14, 2011 7:18:42 PM by 2ndDivisionVet
While Canadians are watching our national election unfold, the 2012 U.S. presidential race is taking a turn for the bizarre.
A few months ago, I said the field would essentially freeze at Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich because those candidates had too much profile to allow lesser dark horse candidates to thrive.
Primaries are tribal clashes. The four main tribes of the Republican Party (social conservatives, Tea Partiers, the wealthy, neo-conservatives) each have a horse in the race, and they aren’t going to leave that candidate for a less appealing figure with no natural constituency. There just aren’t very many paths for an unknown Senator or Governor to get the votes to win.
The thesis failed to account for the possibility of another high wattage public figure entering the race, which is what happened. Donald Trump is now tied for first among Republican primary voters, in the latest CNN poll.
Trump 19% / Huckabee 19% / Palin 12% / Gingrich 11% / Romney 11% / Paul 7% / Bachman 5% / Daniels 3% / Pawlenty 2%
Question: What does this poll mean? Well, it sure made Barack Obama’s month. The leading seven candidates for the Republican nomination are badly damaged.
A good test of a candidate’s electability is if you can summarize their negatives in a bumper sticker. Here is a very quick scan of the Republican field:
Trump: Bankrupted casinos? You’re fired
Huckabee: Raised taxes, and pardoned convict who killed four cops
Palin: She can see Russia from her house
Gingrinch: Left his wife while she was in the hospital for cancer, and government shutdown
Romney: RomneyCare is basically ObamaCare, and his flip-flops and Mormonism
(Excerpt) Read more at theglobeandmail.com ...
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