~ BLOGGER.GUNNY.G ~WAKE UP AMERICA.1984.+ IS HERE!: Can Obama be Beaten?

Thursday, April 07, 2011

Can Obama be Beaten?

...There’s a debate going on right now about the precedents for defeating an incumbent. But those precedents don’t really matter. If we go by precedents, Obama shouldn’t be sitting in the White House at all. The last time a Senator who hadn’t been a Vice President or a Governor won an election was JFK in 1961.

And despite his youthfulness, JFK had spent almost a decade and a half in congress by that point. To find an earlier precedent we have to go back to the 19th century. But it doesn’t matter. None of the precedents do. We are rapidly taking the exit on American history. The old precedents depended on a different society and a different nation. Obama’s victory demonstrated that much, if nothing else. We may be able to recover that nation yet, but it won’t be by a survey of electoral history.
In short, incumbents lose for one reason. They no longer enjoy the public’s confidence. But even if that happens, the incumbent is still favored to win if their opponent is not a credible candidate. In recent political history, Americans are usually dissatisfied with whoever is in the White House by the end of term one. But they’re also willing to play the game of “Better the devil we know”, if the other party can’t bring a serious competitor to the table. And that’s what often happens. Second term elections often get thrown by the other party. A political hack is trotted out by party loyalists to give him a shot at the big time while preserving their dignity. The serious ammunition is saved for the next election.
The one overriding reason in recent political history that incumbents win is because the other side doesn’t even bother showing up....................--
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